The Grounds of an Opinion on the Policy of Restricting the
Importation of Foreign Corn: Intended as an Appendix to Observations on
the Corn Law"
by Rev. T.R. Malthus, Professor of History and Political
Economy
in the East India College, London, Printed for John Murray,
Albermarle Street, and J. Johnson and Co., St. Paul's
Church
Yard, 1815.
The professed object of the Observations
on the corn laws, which
I published in the spring of 1814, was to state with
the strictest impartiality the advantages and disadvantages which, in
the actual circumstances of our present situation, were
likely to
attend the measures under consideration, respecting the
trade in
corn.
A fair review of both sides
of the question, without any
attempt to conceal the peculiar evils, whether temporary
or
permanent, which might belong to each, appeared to me
of use, not
only to assist in forming an enlightened decision on
the subject,
but particularly to prepare the public for the specific
consequences which were to be expected from that decision,
on
whatever side it might be made. Such a preparation, from
some
quarter or other, seemed to be necessary, to prevent
those just
discontents which would naturally have arisen, if the
measure
adopted had been attended with results very different
from those
which had been promised by its advocates, or contemplated
by the
legislature.
With this object in view, it
was neither necessary, nor
desirable, that I should myself express a decided opinion
on the
subject. It would hardly, indeed, have been consistent
with that
character of impartiality, which I wished to give to
my
statements, and in which I have reason to believe I in
some
degree succeeded.(1*)
These previous statements,
however, having been given, and
having, I hope, shown that the decision, whenever it
is made,
must be a compromise of contending advantages and disadvantages,
I have no objection now to state (without the least reserve),
and
I can truly say, wit the most complete freedom from all
interested motives, the grounds of a deliberate, yet
decided,
opinion in favour of some restrictions on the importation
of
foreign corn.
This opinion has been formed,
as I wished the readers of the
Observations to form their opinions, by looking fairly
at the
difficulties on both sides of the question; and without
vainly
expecting to attain unmixed results, determining on which
side
there is the greatest balance of good with the least
alloy of
evil. The grounds on which the opinion so formed rests,
are
partly those which were stated in the Observations, and
partly,
and indeed mainly, some facts which have occurred during
the last
year, and which have given, as I think, a decisive weight
to the
side of restrictions.
These additional facts are,
first, the evidence, which has
been laid before Parliament, relating to the effects
of the
present prices of corn, together with the experience
of the
present year; secondly, the improved state of our exchanges,
and
the fall in the price of bullion; and thirdly, and mainly,
the
actual laws respecting the exportation of corn lately
passed in
France.
1. In the Observations on the
corn laws, I endeavoured to
show that, according to the general principles of supply
and
demand, a considerable fall in the price of corn could
not take
place, without throwing much poor lad out of cultivation,
and
effectually preventing, for a considerable time, all
further
improvements in agriculture, which have for their object
an
increase of produce.
The general principles, on which
I calculated upon these
consequences, have been fully confirmed by the evidence
brought
before the two houses of Parliament; and the effects
of a
considerable fall in the price of corn, and of the expected
continuance of low prices, have shown themselves in a
very severe
shock to the cultivation of the country and a great loss
of
agricultural capital.
Whatever may be said of the
peculiar interests and natural
partialities of those who were called upon to give evidence
upon
this occasion, it is impossible not to be convinced,
by the whole
body of it taken together, that, during the last twenty
years,
and particularly during the last seven, there has been
a great
increase of capital laid out upon the land, and a great
consequent extension of cultivation and improvement;
that the
system of spirited improvement and high farming, as it
is
technically called, has been principally encouraged by
the
progressive rise of prices owing in a considerable degree,
to the
difficulties thrown in the way of importation of foreign
corn by
the war; that the rapid accumulation of capital on the
land,
which it had occasioned, had so increased our home growth
of
corn, that, notwithstanding a great increase of population,
we
had become much less dependent upon foreign supplies
for our
support; and that the land was still deficient in capital,
and
would admit of the employment of such an addition to
its present
amount, as would be competent to the full supply of a
greatly
increased population: but that the fall of prices, which
had
lately taken place, and the alarm of a still further
fall, from
continued importation, had not only checked all progress
of
improvement, but had already occasioned a considerable
loss of
agricultural advances; and that a continuation of low
prices
would, in spite of a diminution of rents, unquestionably
destroy
a great mass of farming capital all over the country,
and
essentially diminish its cultivation and produce.
It has been sometimes said,
that the losses at present
sustained by farmers are merely the natural and necessary
consequences of overtrading, and that they must bear
them as all
other merchants do, who have entered into unsuccessful
speculations. But surely the question is not, or at least
ought
not to be, about the losses and profits of farmers, and
the
present condition of landholders compared with the past.
It may
be necessary, perhaps, to make inquiries of this kind,
with a
view to ulterior objects; but the real question respects
the
great loss of national wealth, attributed to a change
in the
spirit of our legislative enactments relating to the
admission of
foreign corn.
We have certainly no right to
accuse our farmers of rash
speculation for employing so large a capital in agriculture.
The
peace, it must be allowed, was most unexpected; and if
the war
had continued, the actual quantity of capital applied
to the
land, might have been as necessary to save the country
from
extreme want in future, as it obviously was in 1812,
when, with
the price of corn at above six guineas a quarter, we
could only
import a little more than 100,000 quarters. If, from
the very
great extension of cultivation, during the four or five
preceding
years, we had not obtained a very great increase of average
produce, the distresses of that year would have assumed
a most
serious aspect.
There is certainly no one cause
which can affect mercantile
concerns, at all comparable in the extent of its effects,
to the
cause now operating upon agricultural capital. Individual
losses
must have the same distressing consequences in both cases,
and
they are often more complete, and the fall is greater,
in the
shocks of commerce. But I doubt, whether in the most
extensive
mercantile distress that ever took in this country, there
was
ever one fourth of the property, or one tenth of the
number of
individuals concerned, when compared with the effects
of the
present rapid fall of raw produce, combined with the
very scanty
crop of last year.(2*)
Individual losses of course
become national, according as
they affect a greater mass of the national capital, and
a greater
number of individuals; and I think it must be allowed
further,
that no loss, in proportion to its amount, affects the
interest
of the nation so deeply, and vitally, and is so difficult
to
recover, as the loss of agricultural capital and produce.
If it be the intention of the
legislature fairly to look at
the evils, as well as the good, which belongs to both
sides of
the question, it must be allowed, that the evidence laid
before
the two houses of Parliament, and still more particularly
the
experience of the last year, show, that the immediate
evils which
are capable of being remedied by a system of restrictions,
are of
no inconsiderable magnitude.
2. In the Observations on the
corn laws, I gave, as a reason
for some delay in coming to a final regulation respecting
the
price at which foreign corn might be imported, the very
uncertain
state of the currency. I observed, that three different
importation prices would be necessary, according as our
currency
should either rise to the then price of bullion, should
continue
at the same nominal value, or should take an intermediate
position, founded on a fall in the value of bullion,
owing to the
discontinuance of an extraordinary demand for it, and
a rise in
the value of paper, owing to the prospect of a return
to payments
in specie. In the course of this last year, the state
of our
exchanges, and the fall in the price of bullion, show
pretty
clearly, that the intermediate alteration which, I then
contemplated, greater than in the case first mentioned,
and less
than in the second, is the one which might be adopted
with a fair
prospect of permanence; and that we should not now proceed
under
the same uncertainty respecting the currency, which we
should
have done, if we had adopted a final regulation in the
early part
of last year.(3*) This intermediate alteration, however,
supposes
a rise in the value of paper on a return to cash payments,
and
some general fall of prices quite unconnected with any
regulations respecting the corn trade.(4*)
But, if some fall of prices
must take place from this cause,
and if such a fall can never take place without a considerable
check to industry, and discouragement to the accumulation
of
capital, it certainly does not seem a well-chosen time
for the
legislature to occasion another fall still greater, by
departing
at once from a system of restrictions which it had pursued
with
steadiness during the greatest part of the last century
and,
after having given up for a short period, had adopted
again as
its final policy in its two last enactments respecting
the trade
in corn. Even if it be intended. Finally, to throw open
our
ports, it might be wise to pass some temporary regulations,
in
order to prevent the very great shock which must take
place, if
the two causes here noticed, of the depreciation of commodities,
be allowed to produce their full effect by contemporaneous
action.
3. I stated, in the Observations
on the corn laws, that the
cheapness and steadiness in the price of corn, which
were
promised by the advocates of restrictions, were not attainable
by
the measures they proposed; that it was really impossible
for us
to grow at home a sufficiency for our own consumption,
without
keeping up the price of corn considerably above the average
of
the rest of Europe; and that, while this was the case,
as we
could never export to any advantage, we should always
be liable
to the variations of price, occasioned by the glut of
a
superabundant harvest; in short, that it must be allowed
that a
free trade in corn would, in all ordinary cases, not
only secure
a cheaper, but a more steady, supply of grain.
In expressing this distinct
opinion on the effects of a free
trade in corn, I certainly meant to refer to a trade
really free
- that is, a trade by which a nation would be entitled
to its
share of the produce of the commercial world, according
to its
means of purchasing, whether that produce were plentiful
or
scanty. In this sense I adhere strictly to the opinion
I then
gave; but, since that period, an event has occurred which
has
shown, in the clearest manner, that it is entirely out
of our
power, even in time of peace, to obtain a free trade
in corn, or
an approximation towards it, whatever may be our wishes
on the
subject.
It has, perhaps, not been sufficiently
attended to in
general, when the advantages of a free trade in corn
have been
discussed, that the jealousies and fears of nations,
respecting
their means of subsistence, will very rarely allow of
a free
egress of corn, when it is in any degree scarce. Our
own
statutes, till the very last year, prove these fears
with regard
to ourselves; and regulations of the same tendency occasionally
come in aid of popular clamour in almost all countries
of Europe.
But the laws respecting the exportation of corn, which
have been
passed in France during the last year, have brought this
subject
home to us in the most striking and impressive manner.
Our
nearest neighbour, possessed of the largest and finest
corn
country in Europe, and who, owing to a more favourable
climate
and soil, a more stationary and comparatively less crowded
population, and a lighter weight of taxation, can grow
corn at
less than half our prices, has enacted, that the exportation
of
corn shall be free till the price rises to about forty
nine
shillings a quarter,(5*) and that then it shall be entirely
cease.(6*)
From the vicinity of France,
and the cheapness of its corn in
all years of common abundance, it is scarcely possible
that our
main imports should not come from that quarter as long
as our
ports are open to receive them. In this first year of
open trade,
our imports have been such, as to show, that though the
corn of
the Baltic cannot seriously depress our prices in an
unfavourable
season at home, the corn of France may make it fall below
a
growing price, under the pressure of one of the worst
crops that
has been known for a long series of years.
I have at present before me
an extract from a Rouen paper,
containing the prices of corn in fourteen different markets
for
the first week in October, the average of which appears
to be
about thirty eight shillings a quarter;(7*) and this
was after
disturbances had taken place both at Havre and Dieppe,
on account
of the quantity exported, and the rise of prices which
it had
occasioned.
It may be said, perhaps, that
the last harvest of France has
been a very favourable one, and affords no just criterion
of its
general prices. But, from all that I hear, prices have
often been
as low during the last ten years. And, an average not
exceeding
forty shillings a quarter may, I think, be conclusively
inferred
from the price at which exportation is by law to cease.
At a time when, according to
Adam Smith, the growing price in
this country was only twenty eight shillings a quarter,
and the
average price, including years of scarcity, only thirty
three
shillings, exportation was not prohibited till the price
rose to
forty eight shillings. It was the intention of the English
government, at that time, to encourage agriculture by
giving vent
to its produce. We may presume that the same motive influenced
the government of France in the late act respecting exportation.
And it is fair therefore to conclude, that the price
of wheat, in
common years, is considerably less than the price at
which
exportation is to cease.
With these prices so near us,
and with the consequent power
of supplying ourselves with great comparative rapidity,
which in
the corn trade is a point of the greatest importance,
there can
be no doubt that, if our ports were open, our principal
supplies
of grain would come from France; and that, in all years
of common
plenty in that country, we should import more largely
from it
than from the Baltic. But from this quarter, which would
then
become our main and most habitual source of supply, all
assistance would be at once cut off, in every season
of only
moderate scarcity; and we should have to look to other
quarters,
from which it is an established fact, that large sudden
supplies
cannot be obtained, not only for our usual imports, and
the
natural variations which belong to them, but for those
which had
been suddenly cut off from France, and which our habitually
deficient growth had now rendered absolutely necessary.
To open our ports, under these
circumstances, is not to
obtain a free trade in corn; and, while I should say,
without
hesitation, that a free trade in corn was calculated
to produce
steadier prices than the system of restrictions with
which it has
been compared, I should, with as little hesitation say,
that such
a trade in corn, as has been described, would be subject
to much
more distressing and cruel variations, than the most
determined
system of prohibitions.
Such a species of commerce in
grain shakes the foundations,
and alters entirely the data on which the general principles
of
free trade are established. For what do these principles
say?
They say, and say most justly, that if every nation were
to
devote itself particularly to those kinds of industry
and
produce, to which its soil, climate, situation, capital,
and
skill, were best suited; and were then freely to exchange
these
products with each other, it would be the most certain
and
efficacious mode, not only. of advancing the wealth and
prosperity of the whole body of the commercial republic
with the
quickest pace, but of giving to each individual nation
of the
body the full and perfect use of all its resources.
I am very far indeed from meaning
to insinuate, that if we
cannot have the most perfect freedom of trade, we should
have
none; or that a great nation must immediately alter its
commercial policy, whenever any of the countries with
which it
deals passes laws inconsistent with the principles of
freedom.
But I protest most entirely against the doctrine, that
we are to
pursue our general principles without ever looking to
see if they
are applicable to the case before us; and that in politics
and
political economy, we are to go straight forward, as
we certainly
ought to do in morals, without any reference to the conduct
and
proceedings of others.
There is no person in the least
acquainted with political
economy, but must be aware that the advantages resulting
from the
division of labour, as applicable to nations as well
as
individuals, depend solely and entirely on the power
of
exchanging subsequently the products of labour. And no
one can
hesitate to allow, that it is completely in the power
of others
to prevent such exchanges, and to destroy entirely the
advantages
which would otherwise result from the application of
individual
or national industry, to peculiar and appropriate products.
Let us suppose, for instance,
that the inhabitants of the
Lowlands of Scotland were to say to the Highlanders,
'We will
exchange our corn for your cattle, whenever we have a
superfluity; but if our crops in any degree fail, you
must not
expect to have a single grain': would not the question
respecting
the policy of the present change, which is taking place
in the
Highlands, rest entirely upon different grounds? Would
it not be
perfectly senseless in the Highlanders to think only
of those
general principles which direct them to employ the soil
in the
way that is best suited to it? If supplies of corn could
not be
obtained with some degree of steadiness and certainty
from other
quarters, would it not be absolutely necessary for them
to grow
it themselves, however ill adapted to it might be their
soil and
climate?
The same may be said of all
the pasture districts of Great
Britain, compared with the surrounding corn countries.
If they
could only obtain the superfluities of their neighbours,
and were
entitled to no share of the produce when it was scarce,
they
could not certainly devote themselves with any degree
of safety
to their present occupations.
There is, on this account, a
grand difference between the
freedom of the home trade in corn, and the freedom of
the foreign
trade. A government of tolerable vigour can make the
home trade
in corn really free. It can secure to the pasture districts,
or
the towns that must be fed from a distance, their share
of the
general produce, whether plentiful or scarce. It can
set them
quite at rest about the power of exchanging the peculiar
products
of their own labour for the other products which are
necessary to
them, and can dispense, therefore, to all its subjects,
the
inestimable advantages of an unrestricted intercourse.
But it is not in the power of
any single nation to secure the
freedom of the foreign trade in corn. To accomplish this,
the
concurrence of many others is necessary; and this concurrence,
the fears and jealousies so universally prevalent about
the means
of subsistence, almost invariably prevent. There is hardly
a
nation in Europe which does not occasionally exercise
the power
of stopping entirely, or heavily taxing, its exports
of grain, if
prohibitions do not form part of its general code of
laws.
The question then before us
is evidently a special, not a
general one. It is not a question between the advantages
of a
free trade, and a system of restrictions; but between
a specific
system of restrictions formed by ourselves for the purpose
of
rendering us, in average years, nearly independent of
foreign
supplies, and the specific system of restricted importations,
which alone it is in our power to obtain under the existing
laws
of France, and in the actual state of the other countries
of the
continent.(8*)
In looking, in the first place,
at the resources of the
country, with a view to an independent supply for an
increasing
population; and comparing subsequently the advantages
of the two
systems abovementioned, without overlooking their disadvantages,
I have fully made up my mind as to the side on which
the balance
lies; and am decidedly of opinion, that a system of restrictions
so calculated as to keep us, in average years, nearly
independent
of foreign supplies of corn, will more effectually conduce
to the
wealth and prosperity of the country, and of by far the
greatest
mass of the inhabitants, than the opening of our ports
for the
free admission of foreign corn, in the actual state of
Europe.
Of the resources of Great Britain
and Ireland for the further
growth of corn, by the further application of capital
to the
land, the evidence laid before parliament furnishes the
most
ample testimony. But it is not necessary, for this purpose,
to
recur to evidence that may be considered as partial.
All the most
intelligent works which have been written on agricultural
subjects of late years, agree in the same statements;
and they
are confirmed beyond a possibility of doubt, when we
consider the
extraordinary improvements, and prodigious increase of
produce
that have taken place latterly in some districts, which,
in point
of natural soil, are not superior to others that are
still
yielding the most scanty and miserable crops. Most of
the light
soils of the kingdom might, with adequate capital and
skill, be
made to equal the improved parts of Norfolk; and the
vast tracts
of clay lands that are yet in a degraded state almost
all over
the kingdom, are susceptible of a degree of improvement,
which it
is by no means easy to fix, but which certainly offers
a great
prospective increase of produce. There is even a chance
(but on
this I will not insist) of a diminution in the real price
of
corn,(9*) owing to the extension of those great improvements,
and
that great economy and good management of labour, of
which we
have such intelligent accounts from Scotland.(10*) If
these clay
lands, by draining, and the plentiful application of
lime and
other manures, could be so far meliorated in quality
as to admit
of being worked by two horses and a single man, instead
of three
or four horses with a man and a boy, what a vast saving
of labour
and expense would at once be effected, at the same time
that the
crops would be prodigiously increased! And such an improvement
may rationally be expected, from what has really been
accomplished in particular districts. In short, if merely
the
best modes of cultivation, now in use in some parts of
Great
Britain, were generally extended, and the whole country
was
brought to a level, in proportion to its natural advantages
of
soil and situation, by the further accumulation and more
equable
distribution of capital and skill; the quantity of additional
produce would be immense, and would afford the means
of
subsistence to a very great increase of population.
In some countries possessed
of a small territory, and
consisting perhaps chiefly of one or two large cities,
it never
can be made a question, whether or not they should freely
import
foreign corn. They exist, in fact, by this importation;
and being
always, in point of population, inconsiderable, they
may, in
general, rely upon a pretty regular supply. But whether
regular
or not, they have no choice. Nature has clearly told
them, that
if they increase in wealth and power to any extent, it
can only
be by living upon the raw produce of other countries.
It is quite evident that the
same alternative is not
presented to Great Britain and Ireland, and that the
united
empire has ample means of increasing in wealth, population,
and
power, for a very long course of years, without being
habitually
dependent upon foreign supplies for the means of supporting
its
inhabitants.
As we have clearly, therefore,
our choice between two
systems, under either of which we may certainly look
forwards to
a progressive increase of population and power; it remains
for us
to consider in which way the greatest portion of wealth
and
happiness may be steadily secured to the largest mass
of the
people.
1. And first let us look to
the labouring classes of society,
as the foundation on which the whole fabric rests; and,
from
their numbers, unquestionably of the greatest weight,
in any
estimate of national happiness.
If I were convinced, that to
open our ports, would be
permanently to improve the condition of the labouring
classes of
society, I should consider the question as at once determined
in
favour of such a measure. But I own it appears to me,
after the
most deliberate attention to the subject, that it will
be
attended with effects very different from those of improvement.
We are very apt to be deceived by names, and to be captivated
with the idea of cheapness, without reflecting that the
term is
merely relative, and that it is very possible for a people
to be
miserably poor, and some of them starving, in a country
where the
money price of corn is very low. Of this the histories
of Europe
and Asia will afford abundant instances.
In considering the condition
of the lower classes of society,
we must consider only the real exchangeable value of
labour; that
is, its power of commanding the necessaries, conveniences,
and
luxuries of life.
I stated in the Observations,
and more at large in the
Inquiry into rents,(11*) that under the same demand for
labour,
and the same consequent power of purchasing the means
of
subsistence, a high money price of corn would give the
labourer a
very great advantage in the purchase of the conveniences
and
luxuries of life. The effect of this high money price
would not,
of course, be so marked among the very poorest of the
society,
and those who had the largest families; because so very
great a
part of their earnings must be employed in absolute necessaries.
But to all those above the very poorest, the advantage
of wages
resulting from a price of eighty shillings a quarter
for wheat,
compared with fifty or sixty, would in the purchase of
tea,
sugar, cotton, linens, soap, candles, and many other
articles, be
such as to make their condition decidedly superior.
Nothing could counterbalance
this, but a much greater demand
for labour; and such an increased demand, in consequence
of the
opening of our ports, is at best problematical. The check
to
cultivation has been so sudden and decisive, as already
to throw
a great number of agricultural labourers out of employment;(12*)
and in Ireland this effect has taken place to such a
degree, as
to threaten the most distressing, and even alarming,
consequences. The farmers, in some districts, have entirely
lost
the little capital they possessed; and, unable to continue
in
their farms, have deserted them, and left their labourers
without
the means of employment. In a country, the peculiar defects
of
which were already a deficiency of capital, and a redundancy
of
population, such a check to the means of employing labour
must be
attended with no common distress. In Ireland, it is quite
certain, that there are no mercantile capitals ready
to take up
those persons who are thus thrown out of work, and even
in Great
Britain the transfer will be slow and difficult.
Our commerce and manufactures,
therefore, must increase very
considerably before they can restore the demand for labour
already lost; for the and a moderate increase beyond
this will
scarcely make up disadvantage of a low money price of
wages.
These wages will finally be
determined by the usual money
price of corn, and the state of the demand for labour.
There is a difference between
what may be called the usual
price of corn and the average price, which has not been
sufficiently attended to. Let us suppose the common price
of
corn, for four years out of five, to be about £2
a quarter, and
during the fifth year to be £6. The average price
of the five
years will then be £2. 16s.; but the usual price
will still be
about £2, and it is by this price, and not by the
price of a year
of scarcity, or even the average including it, that wages
are
generally regulated.
If the ports were open, the
usual price of corn would
certainly fall, and probably the average price; but from
at has
before been said of the existing laws of France, and
of the
practice among the Baltic nations of raising the tax
on their
exported corn in proportion to the demand for it, there
is every
reason to believe, that the fluctuations of price would
be much
greater. Such would, at least, be my conclusion from
theory; and,
I think, it has been confirmed by the experience of the
last
hundred years. During this time, the period of our greatest
importations, and of our greatest dependence upon foreign
corn,
was from 1792 to 1805 inclusive; and certainly in no
fourteen
years of the whole hundred were the fluctuations of price
so
great. In 1792 the price was 42s. a quarter; in 1796,
77s.; in
1801, 118s. a quarter; and, in 1803, 56s. Between the
year 1792
and 1801 the rise was almost a triple, and in the short
period
from 1798 to 1803, it rose from 50s. to 118s. and fell
again to
56s.(13*)
I would not insist upon this
existence as absolutely
conclusive, on account of the mixture of accident in
all such
appeals to facts; but it certainly tends to confirm the
probability of those great fluctuations which, according
to all
general principles, I should expect from the temper and
customs
of nations, with regard to the egress of corn, when it
is scarce;
and particularly from the existing laws of that country,
which,
in all common years, will furnish us with a large proportion
of
our supplies.
To these causes of temporary
fluctuations, during peace,
should be added the more durable as well as temporary,
fluctuations occasioned by war. Without reference to
the
danger
of excessive scarcity from another combination against
us, if we
are merely driven back at certain distant intervals upon
our own
resources, the experience of the present times will teach
us not
to estimate lightly the convulsion which attends the
return, and
the evils of such alternations of price.
In the Observations, I mentioned
some causes of fluctuations
which would attend the system of restrictions; but they
are in my
opinion inconsiderable, compared with those which have
been just
referred to.
On the labouring classes, therefore,
the effects of opening
our ports for the free importation of foreign corn, will
be
greatly to lower their wages, and to subject them to
much greater
fluctuations of price. And, in this state of things,
it will
require a much greater increase in the demand for labour,
than
there is in any rational ground for expecting, to compensate
to
the labourer the advantages which he loses in the high
money
wages of labour, and the steadier and less fluctuating
price of
corn.
2. Of the next most important
class of society, those who
live upon the profits of stock, one half probably are
farmers, or
immediately connected with farmers; and of the property
of the
other half, not above one fourth is engaged in foreign
trade.
Of the farmers it is needless
to say anything. It cannot be
doubted that they will suffer severely from the opening
of the
ports. Not that the profits of farming will not recover
themselves, after a certain period, and be as great,
or perhaps
greater, than they were before; but this cannot take
place till
after a great loss of agricultural capital, or the removal
of it
into the channels of commerce and manufactures.
Of the commercial and manufacturing
part of the society, only
those who are directly engaged in foreign trade, will
feel the
benefit of the importing system. It is of course to be
expected,
that the foreign trade of the nation will increase considerably.
If it do not, indeed, we shall have experienced a very
severe
loss, without anything like a compensation for it. And
if this
increase merely equals the loss of produce sustained
by
agriculture, the quantity of other produce remaining
the same, it
is quite clear that the country cannot possibly gain
by the
exchange, at whatever price it may buy or sell. Wealth
does not
consist in the dearness or cheapness of the usual measure
of
value, but in the quantity of produce; and to increase
effectively this quantity of produce, after the severe
check
sustained by agriculture, it is necessary that commerce
should
make a very powerful start.
In the actual state of Europe
and the prevailing jealousy of
our manufactures, such a start seems quite doubtful;
and it is by
no means impossible that we shall be obliged to pay for
our
foreign corn, by importing less of other commodities,
as well as
by exporting more of our manufactures.
It may be said, perhaps, that
a fall in the price of our corn
and labour, affords the only chance to our manufacturers
of
retaining possession of the foreign markets; and that
though the
produce of the country may not be increased by the fall
in the
price of corn, such a fall is necessary to prevent a
positive
diminution of it. There is some weight undoubtedly in
this
argument. But if we look at the probable effects of returning
peace to Europe, it is impossible to suppose that, even
with a
considerable diminution in the price of labour, we should
not
lose some markets on the continent, for those manufactures
in
which we have no peculiar advantage; while we have every
reason
to believe that in others, where our colonies, our navigation,
our long credits, our coals, and our mines come in question,
as
well as our skill and capital, we shall retain our trade
in spite
of high wages. Under these circumstances, it seems peculiarly
advisable to maintain unimpaired, if possible, the home
market,
and not to lose the demand occasioned by so much of the
rents of
land, and of the profits and capital of farmers, as must
necessarily be destroyed by the check to our home produce.
But in whatever way the country
may be affected by the
change, we must suppose that those who are immediately
engaged in
foreign trade will benefit by it. As those, however,
form but a
very small portion of the class of persons living on
the profits
of stock, in point of number, and not probably above
a seventh or
eighth in point of property, their interests cannot be
allowed to
weigh against the interests of so very large a majority.
With regard to this great majority,
it is impossible that
they should not feel very widely and severely the diminution
of
their nominal capital by the fall of prices. We know
the magic
effect upon industry of a rise of prices. It has been
noticed by
Hume, and witnessed by every person who has attended
to subjects
of this kind. And the effects of a fall are proportionately
depressing. Even the foreign trade will not escape its
influence,
though here it may be counterbalanced by a real increase
of
demand. But, in the internal trade, not only will the
full effect
of this deadening weight be experienced, but there is
reason to
fear that it may be accompanied with an actual diminution
of home
demand. There may be the same or even a greater quantity
of corn
consumed in the country, but a smaller quantity of manufactures
and colonial produce; and our foreign corn may be purchased
in
part by commodities which were before consumed at home.
In this
case, the whole of the internal trade must severely suffer,
and
the wealth and enjoyments of the country be decidedly
diminished.
The quantity of a country's exports is a very uncertain
criterion
of its wealth. The quantity of produce permanently consumed
at
home is, perhaps, the most certain criterion of wealth
to which
we can refer.
Already, in all the country
towns, this diminution of demand
has been felt in a very great degree; and the surrounding
farmers, who chiefly support them, are quite unable to
make their
accustomed purchases. If the home produce of grain be
considerably diminished by the opening of our ports,
of which
there can be no doubt, these effects in the agricultural
countries must be permanent, though not to the same extent
as at
present. And even if the manufacturing towns should ultimately
increase, in proportion to the losses of the country,
of which
there is great reason to doubt, the transfer of wealth
and
population will be slow, painful, and unfavourable to
happiness.
3. Of the class of landholders,
it may be truly said, that
though they do not so actively contribute to the production
of
wealth, as either of the classes just noticed, there
is no class
in society whose interests are more nearly and intimately
connected with the prosperity of the state.
Some persons have been of opinion,
and Adam Smith himself
among others, that a rise or fall of the price of corn
does not
really affect the interests of the landholders; but both
theory
and experience prove the contrary; and show, that, under
all
common circumstances, a fall of price must be attended
with a
diminution of produce, and that a diminution of produce
will
naturally be attended with a diminution of rent.(14*)
Of the effect, therefore, of
opening the ports, in
diminishing both the real and nominal rents of the landlords,
there can be no doubt; and we must not imagine that the
interest
of a body of men, so circumstanced as the landlords,
can
materially suffer without affecting the interests of
the state.
It has been justly observed
by Adam Smith, that 'no equal
quantity of productive labour employed in manufactures
can ever
occasion so great a reproduction as in agriculture.'
If we
suppose the rents of land taken throughout the kingdom
to be one
fourth of the gross produce, it is evident, that to purchase
the
same value of raw produce by means of manufactures, would
require
one third more capital. Every five thousand pounds laid
out on
the land, not only repays the usual profits of stock,
but
generates an additional value, which goes to the landlord.
And
this additional value is not a mere benefit to a particular
individual, or set of individuals, but affords the most
steady
home demand for the manufactures of the country, the
most
effective fund for its financial support, and the largest
disposable force for its army and navy. It is true, that
the last
additions to the agricultural produce of an improving
country are
not attended with a large proportion of rent;(15*) and
it is
precisely this circumstance that may make it answer to
a rich
country to import some of its corn, if it can be secure
of
obtaining an equable supply. But in all cases the importation
of
foreign corn must fail to answer nationally, if it is
not so much
cheaper than the corn that can be grown at home, as to
equal both
the profits and the rent of the grain which it displaces.
If two capitals of ten thousand
pounds each, be employed, one
in manufactures, and the other in the improvement of
the land,
with the usual profits, and witHdrawn in twenty years,
the one
employed in manufactures will leave nothing behind it,
while the
one employed on the land will probably leave a rent of
no
inconsiderable value.
These considerations, which
are not often attended to, if
they do not affect the ordinary question of a free trade
in corn,
must at least be allowed to have weight, when the policy
of such
a trade is, from peculiarity of situation and circumstances,
rendered doubtful.
4. We now come to a class of
society, who will unquestionably
be benefited by the opening of our ports. These are the
stockholders, and tHose who live upon fixed salaries.(16*)
They
are not only, however, small in number, compared with
those who
will be affected in a different manner; but their interests
are
not so closely interwoven with the welfare of the state,
as the
classes already considered, particularly the labouring
classes,
and the landlords.
In the Observations, I remarked,
that it was 'an error of the
most serious magnitude to suppose that any natural or
artificial
causes, which should raise or lower the values of corn
or silver,
might be considered as matters of indifference; and that,
practically, no material change could take place in the
value of
either, without producing both temporary and lasting
effects,
which have a most powerful influence on the distribution
of
property.'
In fact, it is perfectly impossible
to suppose that, in any
change in the measure of value, which ever did, or ever
can take
place practically, all articles, both foreign and domestic,
and
all incomes, from whatever source derived, should arrange
themselves precisely in the same relative proportions
as before.
And if they do not, it is quite obvious, that such a
change may
occasion the most marked differences in the command possessed
by
individuals and classes of individuals over the produce
and
wealth of the country. Sometimes the changes of this
kind that
actually take place, are favourable to the industrious
classes of
society, and sometimes unfavourable.
It can scarcely be doubted,
that one of the main causes,
which has enabled us hitherto to support, with almost
undiminished resources, the prodigious weight of debt
which has
been accumulated during the last twenty years, is the
continued
depreciation of the measure in which it has been estimated,
and
the great stimulus to industry, and power of accumulation,
which
have been given to the industrious classes of society
by the
progressive rise of prices. As far as this was occasioned
by
excessive issues of paper, the stockholder was unjustly
treated,
and the industrious classes of society benefited unfairly
at his
expense. But, on the other hand, if the price of corn
were now to
fall to 50 shillings a quarter, and labour and other
commodities
nearly in proportion, there can be no doubt that the
stockholder
would be benefited unfairly at the expense of the industrious
classes of society, and consequently at the expense of
the wealth
and prosperity of the whole country.
During the twenty years, beginning
with 1794 and ending with
1813, the average price of British corn per quarter was
about 83
shillings; during the ten years ending with 1813, 92
shillings;
and during the last five years of the twenty, 108 shillings.
In
the course of these twenty years, the government borrowed
near
£500 millions of real capital, for which on a rough
average,
exclusive of the sinking fund, it engaged to pay about
5 per
cent. But if corn should fall to 50 shillings a quarter,
and
other commodities in proportion, instead of an interest
of about
5 per cent the government would really pay an interest
of 7, 8,
9, and for the last £200 millions, 10 per cent.
To this extraordinary generosity
towards the stockholders, I
should be disposed to make no kind of objection, if it
were not
necessary to consider by whom it is to be paid; and a
moment's
reflection will show us, that it can only be paid by
the
industrious classes of society and the landlords, that
is, by all
those whose nominal incomes will vary with the variations
in the
measure of value. The nominal revenues of this part of
the
society, compared with the average of the last five years,
will
be diminished one half; and out of this nominally reduced
income,
they will have to pay the same nominal amount of taxation.
The interest and charges of
the national debt, including the
sinking fund, are now little short of £40 millions
a year; and
these £40 millions, if we completely succeed in
the reduction of
the price of corn and labour, are to be paid in future
from a
revenue of about half the nominal value of the national
income in
1813.
If we consider, with what an
increased weight the taxes on
tea, sugar, malt, leather, soap, candles, etc., etc.
would in
this case bear on the labouring classes of society, and
what
proportion of their incomes all the active, industrious
middle
orders of the state, as well as the higher orders, must
pay in
assessed taxes, and the various articles of the customs
and
excise, the pressure will appear to be absolutely intolerable.
Nor would even the ad valorem taxes afford any real relief.
The
annual £40 millions, must at all events be paid;
and if some
taxes fail, others must be imposed that will be more
productive.
These are considerations sufficient
to alarm even the
stockholders themselves. indeed, if the measure of value
were
really to fall, as we have supposed, there is great reason
to
fear that the country would be absolutely unable to continue
the
payment of the present interest of the national debt.
I certainly do not think, that
by opening our ports to the
freest admission of foreign corn, we shall lower the
price to 50
shillings a quarter. I have already given my reasons
for
believing that the fluctuations which in the present
state of
Europe, a system of importation would bring with it,
would be
often producing dear years, and throwing us back again
upon our
internal resources. But still there is no doubt whatever,
that a
free influx of foreign grain would in all commonly favourable
seasons very much lower its price.
Let us suppose it lowered to
60 shillings a quarter, which
for periods of three or four years together is not improbable.
The difference between a measure of value at 60 compared
with 80
(the price at which it is proposed to fix the importation),
is 33
1/3 per cent. This percentage upon £40 millions
amounts to a very
formidable sum. But let us suppose that corn does not
effectually
regulate the prices of other commodities; and, making
allowances
on this account, let us take only 25, or even 20 per
cent. Twenty
per cent upon £40 millions amounts at once to £8
millions - a sum
which ought to go a considerable way towards a peace
establishment; but which, in the present case, must go
to pay the
additional interest of the national debt, occasioned
by the
change in the measure of value. And even if the price
of corn be
kept up by restrictions to 80 shillings a quarter, it
is certain
that the whole of the loans made during the war just
terminated,
will on an average, be paid at an interest very much
higher than
they were contracted for; which increased interest can,
of
course, only be furnished by the industrious classes
of society.
I own it appears to me that
the necessary effect of a change
in the measure of value on the weight of a large national
debt is
alone sufficient to make the question fundamentally different
from that of a simple question about a free or restricted
trade;
and, that to consider it merely in this light, and to
draw our
conclusions accordingly, is to expect the same results
from
premises which have essentially changed their nature.
From this
review of the manner in which the different classes of
society
will be affected by the opening of our ports, I think
it appears
clearly, that very much the largest mass of the people,
and
particularly of the industrious orders of the state,
will be more
injured than benefited by the measure.
I have now stated the grounds
on which it appears to me to be
wise and politic, in the actual circumstances of the
country, to
restrain the free importation of foreign corn.
To put some stop to the progressive
loss of agricultural
capital, which is now taking place, and which it will
be by no
means easy to recover, it might be advisable to pass
a temporary
act of restriction, whatever may be the intention of
the
legislature in future. But, certainly it is much to be
wished
that as soon as possible, consistently with due deliberation,
the
permanent policy intended to be adopted with regard to
the trade
in corn should be finally settled. Already, in the course
of
little more than a century, three distinct changes in
this policy
have taken place. The act of William, which gave the
bounty,
combined with the prohibitory act of Charles II was founded
obviously and strikingly upon the principle of encouraging
exportation and discouraging importation; the spirit
of the
regulations adopted in 1773, and acted upon some time
before, was
nearly the reverse, and encouraged importation and discouraged
exportation. Subsequently, as if alarmed at the dependence
of the
country upon foreign corn, and the fluctuations of price
which it
had occasioned, the legislature in a feeble act of 1791,
and
rather a more effective one in 1804, returned again to
the policy
of restrictions. And if the act of 1804 be left now unaltered,
it
may be fairly said that a fourth change has taken place;
as it is
quite certain that, to proceed consistently upon a restrictive
system, fresh regulations become absolutely necessary
to keep
pace with the progressive fall in the value of currency.
Such changes in the spirit of
our legislative enactments are
much to be deprecated; and with a view to a greater degree
of
steadiness in future, it is quite necessary that we should
be so
fully prepared for the consequences which belong to each
system,
as not to have our determinations shaken by them, when
they
occur.
If, upon mature deliberation,
we determine to open our ports
to the free admission of foreign grain, we must not be
disturbed
at the depressed state, and diminished produce of our
home
cultivation; we must not be disturbed at our becoming
more and
more dependent upon other nations for the main support
of our
population; we must not be disturbed at the greatly increased
pressure of the national debt upon the national industry;
and we
must not be disturbed at the fluctuations of price, occasioned
by
the very variable supplies, which we shall necessarily
receive
from France, in the actual state of her laws, or by the
difficulty and expense of procuring large, and sudden
imports
from the Baltic, when our wants are pressing. These consequences
may all be distinctly foreseen. Upon all general principles,
they
belong to the opening of our ports, in the actual state
and
relations of this country to the other countries of Europe;
and
though they may be counterbalanced or more than counterbalanced,
by other advantages, they cannot, in the nature of things,
be
avoided.
On the other hand, if, on mature
deliberation, we determine
steadily to pursue a system of restrictions with regard
to the
trade in corn, we must not be disturbed at a progressive
rise in
the price of grain; we must not be disturbed at the necessity
of
altering, at certain intervals, our restrictive laws
according to
the state of the currency, and the value of the precious
metals;
we must not be disturbed at the progressive diminution
of fixed
incomes; and we must not be disturbed at the occasional
loss or
diminution of a continental market for some of our least
peculiar
manufactures, owing to the high price of our labour.(17*)
All
these disadvantages may be distinctly foreseen. According
to all
general principles they strictly belong to the system
adopted;
and, though they may be counterbalanced, and more than
counterbalanced, by other greater advantages, they cannot,
in the
nature of things, be avoided, if we continue to increase
in
wealth and population.
Those who promise low prices
upon the restrictive system,
take an erroneous view of the causes which determine
the prices
of raw produce, and draw an incorrect inference from
the
experience of the first half of the last century. As
I have
stated in another place,(18*) a nation which very greatly
gets
the start of its neighbours in riches, without any peculiar
natural facilities for growing corn, must necessarily
submit to
one of these alternatives - either a very high comparative
price
of grain, or a very great dependence upon other countries
for it.
With regard to the specific
mode of regulating the
importation of corn, if the restrictive system be adopted,
I am
not sufficiently acquainted with the details of the subject
to be
able to speak with confidence. It seems to be generally
agreed,
that, in the actual state of things, a price of about
eighty
shillings a quarter(19*) would prevent our cultivation
from
falling back, and perhaps allow it to be progressive.
But, in
future, we should endeavour, if possible, to avoid all
discussions about the necessity of protecting the British
farmer,
and securing to him a fair living profit. Such language
may
perhaps be allowable in a crisis like the present. But
certainly
the legislature has nothing to do with securing to any
classes of
its subjects a particular rate of profits in their different
trades. This is not the province of a government; and
it is
unfortunate that any language should be used which may
convey
such an impression, and make people believe that their
rulers
ought to listen to the accounts of their gains and losses.
But a government may certainly
see sufficient reasons for
wishing to secure an independent supply of grain. This
is a
definite, and may be a desirable, object, of the same
nature as
the Navigation Act; and it is much to be wished, that
this
object, and not the interests of farmers and landlords,
should be
the ostensible, as well as the real, end which we have
in view,
in all our inquiries and proceedings relating to the
trade in
corn.
I firmly believe that, in the
actual state of Europe, and
under the actual circumstances of our present situation,
it is
our wisest policy to grow our own average supply of corn;
and, in
so doing, I feel persuaded that the country has ample
resources
for a great and continued increase of population, of
power, of
wealth, and of happiness.
NOTES:
1. Some of my friends were of different opinions as to
the side,
towards which my arguments most inclined. This I consider
as a
tolerably fair proof of impartiality.
2. Mercantile losses are always comparatively partial;
but the
present losses, occasioned by the unusual combination
of low
prices, and scanty produce, must inflict a severe blow
upon the
whole mass of cultivators. There never, perhaps, was
known a year
more injurious to the interests of agriculture.
3. At the same time, I certainly now very much wish that
some
regulation had been adopted last year. It would have
saved the
nation a great loss of agricultural capital, which it
will take
some time to recover. But it was impossible to foresee
such a
year as the present -- such a combination, as a very
bad harvest,
and very low prices.
4. I have very little doubt that the value of paper in
this
country has already risen, norwithstanding the increased
issues
of the Bank. These increased issues I attribute chiefly
to the
great failures which have taken place among country banks,
and
the very great purchases which have been made for the
continental
markets, and, under these circumstances, increased issues
might
take place, accompanied even by a rise of value. But
the currency
has not yet recovered itself. The real exchange, during
the last
year, must have been greatly in our favour, although
the nominal
exchange is considerably against us. This shows,
incontrovertibly, that our currency is still depreciated,
in
reference to the bullion currencies of the continent.
A part,
however, of this depreciation may still be owing to the
value of
bullion in Europe not having yet fallen to its former
level.
5. Calculated at twenty four livres the pound sterling.
6. It has been supposed by some, that this law cannot,
and will
not be executed: but I own I see no grounds for such
an opinion.
It is difficult to execute prohibitions against the exportation
of corn, when it is in great plenty, but not when it
is scarce.
For ten years before 1757, we had in this country, regularly
exported on an average, above 400,000 quarters of wheat,
and in
that year there was at once an excess of importation.
With regard
to the alleged impotence of governments in this respect,
it
appears to me that facts show their power rather than
their
weakness. To be convinced of this, it is only necessary
to look
at the diminished importations from America during the
war, and
particularly from the Baltic after Bonaparte's decrees.
The
imports from France and the Baltic in 1810, were by special
licences, granted for purposes of revenue. Such licences
showed
strength rather than weakness; and might have been refused,
if a
greater object than revenue had at that time presented
itself.
7. The average is 16 francs, 21 centimes, the hectolitre.
The
hectolitre is about 1/20th less than 3 Winchester bushels,
which
makes the English quarter come to about 38 shillings.
8. It appears from the evidence, that the corn from the
Baltic is
often very heavily taxed, and that this tax is generally
raised
in proportion to our necessities. In a scarce year in
this
country we could never get any considerable quantity
of corn from
the Baltic, without paying an enormous price for it.
9. By the real growing price of corn I mean the real quantity
of
labour and capital which has been employed to procure
the last
additions which have been made to the national produce.
In every
rich and improving country there is a natural and strong
tendency
to a constantly increasing price of raw produce, owing
to the
necessity of employing, progressively, land of an inferior
quality. But this tendency may be partially counteracted
by great
improvements in cultivation, and economy of labour. See
this
subject treated in An inquiry into the nature and progress
of
rent, just published.
10. Sir John Sinclair, An account of the systems of husbandry
adopted in the more improved districts of Scotland (Edinburgh,
1812), and General report of the agricultural state and
political
circumstances of Scotland, 4 vols. (Edinburgh, 1814).
11. Above, pp. 83-109 and 111-45.
12. I was not prepared to expect (as I intimated in the
Observations) so sudden a fall in the price of labour
as has
already taken place. This fall has been occasioned, not
so much
by the low price of corn, as by the sudden stagnation
of
agricultural work, occasioned by a more sudden check
to
cultivation than I foresaw.
13. I am strongly disposed to believe, that it is owning
to the
unwillingness of governments to allow the free egress
of their
corn, when it is scarce, that nations are practically
so little
dependent upon each other for corn, as they are found
to be.
According to all general principles they ought to be
more
dependent. But the great fluctuations in the price of
corn,
occasioned by this unwillingness, tend to throw each
country back
again upon its internal resources. This was remarkably
the case
with us in 1800 and 1801, when the very high price, which
we paid
for foreign corn, gave a prodigious stimulus to our domestic
agriculture. A large territorial country, that imports
foreign
corn, is exposed not infrequently to the fluctuations
which
belong to this kind of variable dependence, without obtaining
the
cheapness that ought to accompany a trade in corn really
free.
14. See this subject treated in Malthus, Nature and Progress
of
Rent.
15. Malthus, Nature and progress of rent.
16. It is to this class of persons that I consider myself
as
chiefly belonging. Much the greatest part of my income
is derived
from a fixed salary and the interest of money in the
funds.
17. It often happens that the high prices of a particular
country
may diminish the quantity of its exports without diminishing
the
value of their amount abroad; in which case its foreign
trade is
peculiarly advantageous, as it purchases the same amount
of
foreign commodities at a much less expense of labour
and capital.
18. Malthus, Nature and progress of rent.
19. This price seems to be pretty fairly consistent with
the idea
of getting rid of that part of our high prices which
belongs to
excessive issues of paper, and retaining only that part
which
belongs to great wealth, combined with a system of restrictions.
Last updated July, 1997.
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