An Investigation of the Cause of the Present High
Price of Provisions
by T. Robert Malthus 1800
By the Author of the Essay on the Principle of Population.
London, Printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul's-Church-Yard,
by
Davis, Taylor, and Wilks, Chancery-Lane. 1800.
High Price of Provisions: An Investigation of the Cause
Among the many causes that have been assigned of the present
high price of provisions, I am much inclined to suspect,
that the
principal one has hitherto escaped detection; at least,
in the
discussions on the subject, either in print or conversation,
which have fallen within my knowledge, the cause, which
I
conceive to have operated most strongly towards increasing
the
price of the necessaries of life, has not yet been suggested.
There are some disorders, which, though they scarcely
admit of a
cure, or even of any considerable mitigation, are still
capable
of being made greatly worse. In such misfortunes it is
of great
importance to know the desperate nature of the disease.
The next
step to the alleviation of pain, is the bearing it with
composure, and not aggravating it by impatience and irritation.
It cannot admit of a doubt with persons of sense and
information, that, during the last year, there was a
scarcity, to
a certain extent, of all sorts of grain; but it must
be at the
same time acknowledged, that the price was higher than
the degree
of that scarcity would at first sight appear to warrant.
In the summer of 1799, in the course of a northern tour,
I
passed through Sweden. There was at that time a general
dearth of
corn throughout the country, owing to a long drought
the
preceding year. In the province of Värmland, adjoining
to Norway,
it approached almost to a famine, and the lower classes
of people
suffered most severe distress. At the time we were passing
through that part of the country, which was in July,
they were
reduced to two most miserable substitutes for bread;
one, made of
the inner bark of the fir, and the other, of the common
sorrel
dried, and powdered. These substances, though made into
the usual
shape of their rye bread, had no affinity to it whatever
in
taste, and but very little, I believe, in nourishment,
as the
effects of this miserable food were but too visible in
their
pallid and unhealthy countenances.
There could be little doubt, that the degree of scarcity
then
prevailing in that part of Sweden, was considerably greater
than
any we have hitherto experienced here; and yet, as far
as we
could learn, the price of rye, which is the grain principally
used for bread, had not risen above double its usual
average;
whereas in this country last year, in a scarcity, that
must be
acknowledged to be very greatly inferior in degree, wheat
rose to
above three times its former price.
The continuation of extraordinary high prices, after a
harvest that was at one time looked forward to as abundant,
has
contributed still more to astonish and perplex the public
mind.
Many men of sense have joined in the universal cry of
the common
people, that there must be roguery somewhere; and the
general
indignation has fallen upon monopolizers, forestallers,
and
regraters - words, that are vented from every mouth with
fearful
execrations, and are applied indiscriminately to all
middle men
whatever, to every kind of trader that goes between the
grower of
the commodity and the consumer.
This popular clamour, headed by the Lord Chief Justice,
and
enforced throughout the country by the instructions of
the grand
juries, must make every reflecting mind tremble for the
future
supply of our markets. I cannot but think therefore,
that I
should do an acceptable service, if I could succeed in
accounting
for the present high price of the necessaries of life,
without
criminating a class of men, who, I believe, have been
accused
unjustly, and who, every political economist must know,
are
absolutely necessary in the complicated machinery that
distributes the provisions and other commodities of a
large
nation.
I ought first to premise, however, that I am not interested
in this question, further than as a lover of truth, and
a
well-wisher to my country. I have no sort of connection
whatever
with any of these middle men or great farmers, who are
now the
objects of public indignation: and, as an individual
with a small
fixed income, I am certainly. among that class of persons
on whom
the high price of provisions must fall the heaviest.
To proceed to the point: I am most strongly inclined to
suspect, that the attempt in most parts of the kingdom
to
increase the parish allowances in proportion to the price
of
corn, combined with the riches of the country, which
have enabled
it to proceed as far as it has done in this attempt,
is,
comparatively speaking, the sole cause, which has occasioned
the
price of provisions in this country to rise so much higher
than
the degree of scarcity would seem to warrant, so much
higher than
it would do in any other country where this cause did
not
operate.
It may appear, perhaps, at first, to the reader, that
this
cause is inadequate to the effect we experience; but,
if he will
kindly allow me a few minutes of patient and candid attention,
I
hope I shall be able to convince him, that it is not
only
adequate to produce the present high price of provisions
of which
we complain; but, admitting a real scarcity, that the
attempt to
carry it actually into execution, might raise the quartern
loaf
before the expiration of a year, to as many shillings
as it is
now pence.
Adam Smith has most justly stated, that the actual price
at
which a commodity is sold, is compounded of its natural
price,
the price at which it can be brought to market, allowing
the
usual profit in times of moderate plenty, and the proportion
of
the supply to the demand. When any commodity is scarce,
its
natural price is necessarily forgotten, and its actual
price is
regulated by the excess of the demand above the supply.
Let us suppose a commodity in great request by fifty people,
but of which, from some failure in its production, there
is only
sufficient to supply forty. If the fortieth man from
the top have
two shillings which he can spend in this commodity, and
the
thirty nine above him, more, in various proportions,
and the ten
below, all less, the actual price of the article, according
to
the genuine principles of trade, will be two shillings.
If more
be asked, the whole will not be sold, because there are
only
forty who have as much as two shillings to spend in the
article;
and there is no reason for asking less, because the whole
may be
disposed of at that sum.
Let us suppose, now, that somebody gives the ten poor
men,
who were excluded, a shilling apiece. The whole fifty
can now
offer two shillings, the price which was before asked.
According
to every genuine principle of fair trading, the commodity
must
immediately rise. If it do not, I would ask, upon what
principle
are ten, out of the fifty who are all able to offer two
shillings, to be rejected? For still, according to the
supposition. there is only enough for forty. The two
shillings of
a poor man are just as good as the two shillings of a
rich one;
and, if we interfere to prevent the commodity from rising
out of
the reach of the poorest ten, whoever they may be, we
must toss
up, draw lots, raffle, or fight, to determine who are
to be
excluded. It would be beyond my present purpose, to enter
into
the question whether any of these modes would be more
eligible,
for the distribution of the commodities of a country,
than the
sordid distinction of money; but certainly, according
to the
customs of all civilized and enlightened nations, and
according
to every acknowledged principle of commercial dealing,
the price
must be allowed to rise to that point which will put
it beyond
the power of ten out of the fifty to purchase. This point
will,
perhaps, be half a crown or more, which will now.become
the price
of the commodity. Let another shilling apiece be given
to the
excluded ten: all will now be able to offer half a crown.
The
price must in consequence immediately rise to three shillings
or
more, and so on toties quoties.
In the progress of this operation the ten excluded would
not
be always entirely the same. The richest of the ten first
excluded, would probably be raised above the poorest
of the first
forty. Small changes of this kind must take place. The
additional
allowances to the poorest, and the weight of the high
prices on
those above them, would tend to level the two orders;
but, till a
complete level had taken place, ten must be always excluded,
and
the price would always be fixed, as nearly as possible,
at that
sum which the fortieth man at the top could afford to
give. This,
if the donatives were continued, would raise the commodity
to an
extraordinary price, without the supposition of any combination
and conspiracy among the vendors, or any kind of unfair
dealing
whatever.
The rise in the price of corn, and of other provisions,
in
this country, has been effected exactly in the same manner,
though the operation may be a little more complicated;
and I am
firmly convinced, that it never could have reached its
present
height, but from the system of poor laws and parish allowances,
which have operated precisely in the same mode as the
donatives
of a shilling in the instance I have just adduced.
The harvest of 1799 was bad, both in quality and quantity.
few people could deny that there appeared to be a very
considerable deficiency of produce: and the price of
the load of
wheat rose in consequence almost immediately to £20.
I returned
from the north in the beginning of November, and found
the alarm
so great and general, and the price of corn so high,
that I
remember thinking that it was probably fully adequate
to the
degree of the deficiency, and, taking into consideration
the
prospect of importation from the very early alarm, that
it would
not rise much higher during the year. In this conjecture,
it
appears that I was much mistaken; but I have very little
doubt
that in any other country equally rich, yet without the
system of
poor laws and parish allowances, the price would never
have
exceeded £25 the load of wheat; and that this sum
would have been
sufficiently high to have excluded such a number of people
from
their usual consumption, as to make the deficient crop,
with the
quantity imported, last throughout the year.
The system of poor laws, and parish allowances, in this
country, and I will add, to their honour, the humanity
and
generosity of the higher and middle classes of society,
naturally
and necessarily altered this state of things. The poor
complained
to the justices that their wages would not enable them
to supply
their families in the single article of bread. The justices
very
humanely, and I am far from saying improperly, listened
to their
complaints, inquired what was the smallest sum on which
they
could support their families, at the then price of wheat,
and
gave an order of relief on the parish accordingly. The
poor were
now enabled, for a short time, to purchase nearly their
usual
quantity of flour; but the stock in the country was not
sufficient, even with the prospect of importation, to
allow of
the usual distribution to all its members. The crop was
consuming
too fast. Every market day the demand exceeded the supply;
and
those whose business it was to judge on these subjects,
felt
convinced, that in a month or two the scarcity would
be greater
than it was at that time. Those who were able, therefore,
kept
back their corn. In so doing, they undoubtedly consulted
their
own interest; but they, as undoubtedly, whether with
the
intention or not is of no consequence, consulted the
true
interest of the state: for, if they had not kept it back,
too
much would have been consumed, and there would have been
a famine
instead of a scarcity at the end of the year.
The corn, therefore, naturally rose. The poor were again
distressed. fresh complaints were made to the justices,
and a
further relief granted; but, like the water from the
mouth of
Tantalus, the corn still slipped from the grasp of the
poor; and
rose again so as to disable them from purchasing a sufficiency
to
keep their families in health. The alarm now became still
greater, and more general.(1*) The justices in their
individual
capacities were not thought competent to determine on
the proper
modes of relief in the present crisis, a general meeting
of the
magistrates was called, aided by the united wisdom of
other
gentlemen of the county; but the result was merely the
continuation and extension of the former system of relief;
and,
to say the truth, I hardly see what else could have been
done. In
some parishes this relief was given in the shape of flour;
in
others, which was certainly better, in money, accompanied
with a
recommendation not to spend the whole of it in wheaten
bread, but
to adopt some other kind of food. All, however, went
upon the
principle of inquiring what was the usual consumption
of flour in
the different families, and of enabling them to purchase
nearly
the same quantity that they did before the scarcity.
With this
additional command of money in the low er classes, and
the
consequent increased consumption, the number of purchasers
at the
then price would naturally exceed the supply. The corn
would in
consequence continue rising. The poor's rates in many
parishes
increased from 4 shillings in the pound to 14; the price
of wheat
necessarily kept pace with them; and before the end of
the year
was at near £40 a load; when probably without the
operation of
this cause it would not have exceeded £20 or £25.
Some of the poor would naturally make use of their additional
command of money to purchase butter, cheese, bacon, pickled
pork,
rice, potatoes, etc. These commodities are all more limited
in
quantity than corn; and would, therefore, more suddenly
feel the
increased demand. If butter, cheese, bacon, pickled pork,
and the
coarser parts of meat, had continued at their usual price,
they
would have been purchased by so many, to come in aid
of an
inferior kind of bread, or to give a relish and additional
nourishment to their potatoes and rice, that the supply
would not
have been half adequate to the quantity of these articles
that
was wanted. These commodities, therefore, rose as naturally
and
as necessarily as the corn; and, according to the genuine
principles of fair trade, their price was fixed at that
sum which
only such a number could afford to give, as would enable
the
supply to answer the demand.
To fix upon this sum is the great object of every dealer
and
speculator in every commodity whatever, and about which
he must,
of course, exercise his private judgement. A reflecting
mind, far
from being astonished that there are now and then errors
in
speculation, must feel much greater astonishment that
there are
so few; and that the supplies of a large nation, whether
plentiful or scanty, should be distributed so equally
throughout
the year. Most happily for society, individual interest
is, in
these cases, so closely and intimately interwoven with
the public
interest, that one cannot gain or lose without a gain
or loss to
the other. The man who refuses to send his corn to market
when it
is at £20 a load, because he thinks that in two
months time it
will be at £30, if he be right in his judgement,
and succeed in
his speculation, is a positive and decided benefactor
to the
state; because he keeps his supply to that period when
the state
is much more in want of it; and if he and some others
did not
keep it back in that manner, instead of its being £30
in two
months, it would be £40 or £50.
If he be wrong in his speculation, he loses perhaps very
considerably himself, and the state suffers a little;
because,
had he brought his corn to market at £20, the price
would have
fallen sooner, and the event showed that there was corn
enough in
the country to allow of it: but the slight evil that
the state
suffers in this case is almost wholly compensated by
the glut in
the market, when the corn is brought out, which makes
the price
fall below what it would have been otherwise.
I am far from saying that there can be no such thing as
monopoly, and the other hard words that have been so
much talked
of. In a commodity of a confined nature, within the purchase
of
two or three large capitals, or of a company of merchants,
we all
know that it has often existed; and, in a very few instances,
the
article may have been in part destroyed, to enhance the
price, as
the Dutch Company destroyed the nutmeg trees in their
spice
islands: but in an article which is in so many hands
as corn is,
in this country, monopoly, to any pernicious extent,
may safely
be pronounced impossible. Where are the capitals, or
where is the
company of merchants, rich enough to buy such a quantity
of corn,
as would make it answer to them to destroy, or, which
is the same
thing, not to sell a great part of it? As they could
not, by the
greatest of exertions, purchase one fourth of all the
corn in the
country, it is evident that, if any considerable part
of their
stock remained unsold, they would have enriched all the
other
dealers in corn at their own expense; and would not have
gained
half so much in proportion to their capital as the rest
of the
farmers and cornfactors. If on the contrary all their
stock sold,
it would be a proof that the speculation had been just,
and that
the country had really benefited by it.
It seems now to be universally agreed, that the stock
of old
corn remaining on hand at the beginning of the harvest
this year
was unusually small, notwithstanding that the harvest
came on
nearly a month soOner than could have been expected in
the
beginning of June. This is a clear, decided, and unanswerable
proof that there had been no speculations in corn that
were
prejudicial to the country. All that the large farmers
and
cornfactors had done, was to raise the corn to that price
which
excluded a sufficient number from their usual consumption,
to
enable the supply to last throughout the year. This price,
however, has been most essentially and powerfully affected
by the
ability that has been given to the labouring poor, by
means of
parish allowances, of continuing to purchase wheat
notwithstanding its extraordinary rise: and this ability
must
necessarily prevent the price of corn from falling very
materially, till there is an actual glut in the market;
for,
while the whole stock will go off at £30 a load,
it cannot, on
any regular principle of trade, sink lower. I was in
very great
hopes, just before the harvest, that such a glut was
about to
take place; but it is now to be feared, from the nature
of the
present crop, that no such happy event can be hoped for
during
the year.
I do not know whether I have convinced my reader that
the
cause which I have assigned of the present extraordinary
price of
provisions is adequate to the effect; but I certainly
feel most
strongly convinced of it myself; and I cannot but believe
that,
if he differ from me, it can only be in degree, and from
thinking
that the principle of parish allowances has not yet been
carried
far enough to produce any material effect. With regard
to the
principle itself, if it were really carried into execution,
it
appears to me capable almost of mathematical demonstration,
that,
granting a real scarcity of one fourth, which could not
be
remedied by importation, it is adequate to the effecting
any
height of price that the proportion of the circulating
medium to
the quantity of corn daily consumed would admit.
It has often been proposed, and more than once I believe,
in
the House of Commons, to proportion the price of labour
exactly
to the price of provisions. This, though it would be
always a bad
plan, might pass tolerably in years of moderate plenty,
or in a
country that was in the habit of a considerable exportation
of
grain. But let us see what would be its operation in
a real
scarcity. We suppose, for the sake of the argument, that
by law
every kind of labour is to be paid accurately in proportion
to
the price of corn, and that the rich are to be assessed
to the
utmost to support those in the same manner who are thrown
out of
employment, and fall upon the parish. We allow the scarcity
to be
an irremediable deficiency of one fourth of all the provisions
of
the country. It is evident that, notwithstanding this
deficiency,
there would be no reason for economy in the labouring
classes.
The rise of their wages, or the parish allowances that
they would
receive, would enable them to purchase exactly the same
quantity
of corn, Or other provisions, that they did before, whatever
their price might be. The same quantity would of course
be
consumed; and, according to the regular principles of
trade, as
the stock continued diminishing, the price of all the
necessaries
of life would continue rising, in the most rapid and
unexampled
manner. The middle classes of society would very soon
be blended
with the poor; and the largest fortunes could not stand
against
the accumulated pressure of the extraordinary price of
provisions, on the one hand, and the still more extraordinary
assessments for allowances to those who had no other
means of
support, On the other. The cornfactors and farmers would
undoubtedly be the last that suffered, but, at the expiration
of
the three quarters of a year, what they received with
one hand,
they must give away with the other; and a most complete
levelling
of all property would take place. All would have the
same
quantity of money. All the provisions of the country
would be
consumed: and all the people would starve together.
There is no kind of fear, that any such tragical event
should
ever happen in any country; but I allowed myself to make
the
supposition; because, it appears to me, that, in the
complicated
machinery of human society, the effect of any particular
principle frequently escapes from the view, even of an
attentive
observer, if it be not magnified by pushing it to extremity.
I do not, however, by any means, intend to infer, from
what I
have said, that the parish allowances have been prejudicial
to
the state; or that, as far as the system has been hitherto
pursued, or is likely to be pursued, in this country,
that it is
not one of the best modes of relief that the circumstances
of the
case will admit. The system of the poor laws, in general,
I
certainly do most heartily condemn, as I have expressed
in
another place, but I am inclined to think that their
operation in
the present scarcity has been advantageous to the country.
The
principal benefit which they have produced, is exactly
that which
is most bitterly complained of - the high price of all
the
necessaries of life. The poor cry out loudly at this
price; but,
in so doing, they are very little aware of what they
are about;
for it has undoubtedly been owing to this price that
a much
greater number of them has not been starved.
It was calculated that there were only two thirds of an
average crop last year. Probably, even with the aid of
all that
we imported, the deficiency still remained a fifth or
sixth.
Supposing ten millions of people in the island; the whole
of this
deficiency, had things been left to their natural course,
would
have fallen almost exclusively on two, or perhaps three
millions
of the poorest inhabitants, a very considerable number
of whom
must in consequence have starved. The operation of the
parish
allowances, by raising the price of provisions so high,
caused
the distress to be divided among five or six millions,
perhaps,
instead of two or three, and to be by no means unfelt
even by the
remainder of the population.
The high price, therefore, which is so much complained
of by
the poor, has essentially mitigated their distress by
bringing
down to their level two or three millions more, and making
them
almost equal sharers in the pressure of the scarcity.
The further effects of the high price have been to enforce
a
strict economy in all ranks of life; to encourage an
extraordinary importation, and to animate the farmer
by the
powerful motive of self interest to make every exertion
to obtain
as great a crop as possible the next year.
If economy, importation, and every possible encouragement
to
future production, have not the fairest chance of putting
an end
to the scarcity, I confess myself at a loss to say what
better
means can be substituted. I may undoubtedly on this subject
be
much mistaken; but to me, I own, they appear more calculated
to
answer the purpose intended, than the hanging any number
of
farmers and cornfactors that could be named.
No inference, therefore, is meant to be drawn against
what
has been done for the relief of the poor in the present
scarcity,
though it has without doubt greatly raised the price
of
provisions. All that I contend for is, that we should
be aware of
the effect of what we ourselves have done, and not lay
the blame
on the wrong persons.
If the cause, which I have detailed, be sufficient to
account
for the present high price of provisions, without the
supposition
of any unfair dealing among the farmers and cornfactors,
we ought
surely to bear the present pressure like men labouring
under a
disorder that must have its course, and not throw obstacles
in
the way of returning plenty, and endanger the future
supplies of
our markets, by encouraging the popular clamour, and
keeping the
farmers and corn dealers in perpetual fear for their
lives and
property.
To suppose that a year of scarcity can pass without
distressing severely a large part of the inhabitants
of a
country, is to suppose a contradiction in the nature
of things. I
know of no other definition of a scarcity than the failure
of the
usual quantity of provisions; and if a great part of
the people
Had but just enough before, they must undoubtedly have
less than
enough at such a period. With regard to the scarcity
being
artificial, it appears to me so impossible, that, till
it has
been proved that some man Or set of men, with a capital
of twenty
or thirty millions sterling, has bought up half the corn
in the
country, I own I must still disbelieve it. On this subject,
however, I know that I differ from some very respectable
friends
of mine, among the common people, who say that it is
quite
impossible that there can be a real scarcity, because
you may get
what quantity of corn you please, if you have but money
enough;
and to say the truth, many persons, who ought to be better
informed, argue exactly in the same way. I have often
talked with
labouring men on this subject, and endeavoured to show
them, that
if they, or I, had a great deal of money, and other people
had
but little, we could undoubtedly buy what quantity of
corn we
liked, by taking away the shares of those who were less
rich; but
that if all the people had the same sum, and that there
was not
enough corn in the country to supply all, we could not
get what
we wanted for money, though we possessed millions. I
never found,
however, that my rhetoric produced much impression.
The cry at present is in favour of small farms, and against
middle men. No two clamours can well be more inconsistent
with
each other, as the destruction of the middle men would,
I
conceive, necessarily involve with it the destruction
of small
farmers. The small farmer requires a quick return of
his scanty
capital to enable him to pay his rent and his workmen;
and must
therefore send his corn to market almost immediately
after
harvest. If he were required to perform the office of
corn
dealer, as well as farmer, and wait to regulate his supplies
to
the demands of the markets, a double capital would be
absolutely
necessary to him, and not having that, he would be ruined.
Many men of sense and information have attributed the
dearness of provisions to the quantity of paper in circulation.
There was undoubtedly great reason for apprehension,
that when,
by the stoppage of the Bank to pay in specie, the emission
of
paper ceased to have its natural check, the circulation
would be
overloaded with this currency; but this certainly could
not have
taken place to any considerable extent without a sensible
depreciation of bank notes in comparison with specie.
As this
depreciation did not happen, the progress of the evil
must have
been slow and gradual, and never could have produced
the sudden
and extraordinary rise in the price of provisions which
was so
sensibly felt last year, after a season of moderate cheapness,
subsequent to the stoppage of the Bank.
There is one circumstance, however, that ought to be attended
to. To circulate the same, or nearly the same,(2*) quantity
of
commodities through a country, when they bear a much
higher
price, must require a greater quantity of the medium,
whatever
that may be. The circulation naturally takes up more.
It is
probable, therefore, that the Bank has found it necessary
to
issue a greater number of its notes on this account.
Or, if it
has not, this deficiency has been supplied by the country
bankers, who have found that their notes now stay out
longer, and
in greater quantity, than they did before the scarcity,
which may
tempt many to overtrade their capitals. If the quantity
of paper,
therefore, in circulation has greatly increased during
the last
year, I should be inclined to consider it rather as the
effect
than the cause of the high price of provisions. This
fullness of
circulating medium, however, will be one of the obstacles
in the
way to returning cheapness.
The public attention is now fixed with anxiety towards
the
meeting of Parliament, which is to relieve us from our
present
difficulties; but the more considerate do not feel very
sanguine
on this subject, knowing how little is to be done in
this species
of distress by legislative interference. We interfere
to fix the
assize of bread. Perhaps one of the best interferences
of the
legislature, in the present instance, would be to abolish
that
assize. I have certainly no tendency to believe in combinations
and conspiracies; but the great interval that elapses
between the
fall of wheat and the fall of flour, compared with the
quick
succession of the rise of flour to the rise of wheat,
would
almost tempt one to suppose, that there might be some
little
management in the return of the meal weighers to the
Lord Mayor.
If the public suffer in this instance, it is evidently
owing to
the assize, without which, the opportunity of any such
management
would not exist. And what occasion can there be for an
assize in
a city like London, in which there are so many bakers?
if such a
regulation were ever necessary, it would appear to be
most so in
a country village or small town, where perhaps there
is but one
person in the trade, and who might, therefore, for a
time, have
an opportunity of imposing on his customers; but this
could not
take place where there was such room for competition
as in
London. If there were no assize, more attention would
be
constantly paid to the weight and quality of the bread
bought;
and the bakers who sold the best in these two respects
would have
the most custom. The removal of this regulation would
remove, in
a great measure, the difficulty about brown bread, and
a much
greater quantity of it would probably be consumed.
The soup shops, and every attempt to make a nourishing
and
palatable food of what was before not in use among the
common
people, must evidently be of great service in the present
distress.
It is a fact now generally acknowledged, and it has lately
received an official sanction in a letter of the Duke
of Portland
to the Lord Lieutenant of the county of Oxford, that
of late
years, even in the best seasons, we have not grown corn
sufficient for our own consumption; whereas, twenty years
ago, we
were in the constant habit of exporting grain to a very
considerable amount. Though we may suppose that the agriculture
of the country has not been increasing, as it ought to
have done,
during this period; yet we cannot well imagine that it
has gone
backwards. To what then can we attribute the present
inability in
the country to support its inhabitants, but to the increase
of
population? I own that I cannot but consider the late
severe
pressures of distress on every deficiency in Our crops,
as a very
strong exemplification of a principle which I endeavoured
to
explain in an essay published about two years ago, entitled,
An
essay on the principle of population, as it affects the
future
improvement of society. It was considered by many who
read it,
merely as a specious argument, inapplicable to the present
state
of society; because it contradicted some preconceived
opinions on
these subjects. Two years' reflection have, however,
served
strongly to convince me of the truth of the principle
there
advanced, and of its being the real cause of the continued
depression and poverty of the lower classes of society,
of the
total inadequacy of all the present establishments in
their
favour to relieve them, and of the periodical returns
of such
seasons of distress as we have of late experienced.
The essay has now been out of print above a year; but
I have
deferred giving another edition of it in the hope of
being able
to make it more worthy of the public attention, by applying
the
principle directly and exclusively to the existing state
of
society, and endeavouring to illustrate the power and
universality of its operation from the best authenticated
accounts that we have of the state of other countries.
Particular
engagements in the former part of the time, and some
most
unforeseen and unfortunate interruptions latterly, have
hitherto
prevented me from turning my attention, with any effect,
towards
this subject. I still, however, have it in view. In the
meantime
I hope that this hasty attempt to add my mite to the
public stock
of information, in the present emergency, will be received
with
candour.
NOTES:
1. I am describing what took place in the neighbourhood
where I
then lived, and I have reason to believe that something
nearly
similar took place in most counties of the kingdom.
2. In a scarcity the quantity of commodities in circulation
is probably not so great as in years of plenty. |