WORLD POPULATION
By Dr. Frank Elwell
WORLD POPULATION
In the six seconds it takes you to read this sentence, 24 people will added to the earth's population.
Within an hour, 11,000 will be added.
By day's end...260,000.
1 Million every 4 days
Exponential Growth
It took 4 million years for humanity to reach the 2 billion mark.
Only 30 years to add a third billion.
And now we're increasing by about 90 million every single year.
DOUBLING TIME
From 6000 B.C. to 1650 A.D. the population of the earth doubled about every 2000 years.
In 1650 A.D. there were about 500 million people in the world.
DOUBLING TIME
Now, only 350 years later the population is 6 billion people in the world.
Doubling time is about 40 years.
DOUBLING TIME
How to Calculate:
70/ annual rate of growth=doubling time
DOUBLING TIME
At 6 billion people, and a growth rate of about 1.7%, the world's population will reach 12 billion by about 2041.
Billions and Millions
Now we are talking about some astronomical numbers.
To get an idea of the magnitude of the problem, consider the following slides...
DO YOU KNOW YOUR MILLIONS?
Suppose you won a million dollars in the Oklahoma lottery.
You don't trust banks so you stuff it in your mattress and spend $1,000 a day for expenses. How long would it take for you to spend the million?
DO YOU KNOW YOUR MILLIONS?
About 3 years
DO YOU KNOW YOUR BILLIONS?
Now suppose you won a billion dollars in the U.S. lottery.
You don't trust banks so you stuff it in your mattress. You take out $1,000 dollars a day for expenses. How long before you spend the entire billion?
DO YOU KNOW YOUR BILLIONS?
About 3,000 years!
FUTURE PROBLEMS
Four facts about the additional 6 billion or so people who will be added by 2050:
Almost all the increase will be in the Third World.
Age 15 to 35 will be the dominant age category.
Most of the growth will be urban.
Poverty is both cause and effect
Third World
These are the underdeveloped nations of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In 1975 the population of these countries constituted 73% of the world's population; by 2000 it is 80%.
Age 15 to 35 will be Dominant Age Category.
Since 1960, the population growth in Third World nations has meant that people age 15 to 35 have become the dominant age category.
Age 15 to 35 will be Dominant Age Category.
The massive gap between expectations and reality for these many millions is likely to have international repercussions.
Age 15 to 35 will be Dominant Age Category.
Demographers often call this group the "young barbarians."
They are not yet tied into the social structure. They have high expectations out of life, little skill, and very little patience.
Age 15 to 35 will be Dominant Age Category.
This is the group most likely to participate in:
riots
revolution
emigration
anarchy
Urban Growth
Whereas the population of the world is doubling about every 40 years, in the Third World population is doubling about every 25 years.
In Third World cities it is doubling every 13.5 years!
Urban Growth
Among animals, when a certain level of crowding is reached, stress causes bizarre behavior.
Cannibalism, neglect of young, sexual aberrations, withdrawal, convulsions, hyperactivity, have all been reported in the literature.
Urban Growth
Whether or not overcrowding causes these behaviors among human beings has yet to be conclusively demonstrated.
However, no study has shown any psychic advantage to human density.
Urban Growth
People from rural areas are often unprepared for life in the cities:
No mechanical skills
Often illiterate
Often steeped in rural traditions and superstitions
Urban Growth
Cities are often unprepared for rural peoples:
Provision of food and services
Disposal of waste and sewage
Increasingly polluted air and water
Housing and sanitation
No industries to provide jobs
Urban Growth
High growth rates of cities will magnify and intensify other problems:
Religious animosities
Resource shortages
Pollution
Racial unrest
Urban Growth
This may lead to a situation of continuous disruptions, revolution, mass starvation, ethnic and religious upheaval as numerous groups pursue their narrow interests and goals.
Absolute Poverty
As much as half the population of some countries (India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Somalia) live in absolute poverty.
Absolute Poverty
Absolute poverty translates into:
Inadequate diets
High infant mortality
Low life expectancy
High illiteracy rates
Poverty
Poor families want a number of children
because so many children die
to help them economically
to provide social security
Poverty
Poor parents have large families because they are poor, they are not poor because they have large families.
Hot Spots: Central America
Poverty in Central America is a cause of political unrest in the region. There are now 118 million people living on the land between the Rio Grande River and the Isthmus of Panama.
By the year 2025, there will be 204 million.
Hot Spots: Africa
From the Arab nations in the north to South Africa, the African continent faces internal and external unrest.
Today, the continent's population is 680 million; by the year 2020 it will be 1.65 billion.
Hot Spots: Egypt
Egypt, a nation of some 69 million people and a key force for stability in the Middle East faces serious economic problems today.
There will be 105 million Egyptians by the year 2025.
The Great Hope of the World
The great hope of the world is that Third World countries will undergo the demographic transition, and that world population will stabilize at sustainable levels.
Demographic Transition
Economic development brings improvements in nutrition, sanitation, and medicine.
Each of which lowers a society’s death rate.
Demographic Transition
In addition, economic development also changes the incentive for having children for many people.
When a certain level of development is reached by a family, children are no longer economic assets and become "liabilities."
Demographic Transition
Assuming that development produces a large middle class, these people begin to voluntarily lower their birth rates and the population growth of the society begins to decline.
Demographic Transition
So, initially, in the first stage of the transition (in the "pre-industrial" stage) both birth rates and death rates are high, canceling each other out, and population level remains low (in line with what the environment can provide).
Demographic Transition
In the second stage, the "industrializing" or growth stage, death rates decline and birth rates remain high, population level thus climbs rapidly.
Demographic Transition
Finally, in the mature industrial stage, both death and birth rates are low, population levels off (at a far higher level than pre-industrial societies).
In mature industrial societies (or "hyper-industrial" as I like to call them) population level actually begins a slight decline.
Demographic Transition
Three stages:
Pre-Industrial
Industrializing
Advanced Industrial
The Great Hope:
The great hope of the world is that Third World countries will undergo development and thus enter into the demographic transition.
The Great Hope:
Many Third World societies have entered the second stage--death rates have declined because of advances in nutrition, sanitation, and medicine.
The Great Hope:
But many societies seem to be stuck in this second stage.
There are two problems with relying on the demographic transition to solve the problem.
Problems with the Demographic Transition:
Pace:
Many Third World countries have faster population growth than economic growth.
Therefore, each year, their standard of living declines thus giving people little incentive to cut down on their fertility.
Problems with the Demographic Transition:
Debt:
Many Third World countries borrowed heavily in ill-advised development schemes in the last 30 years.
Thus they are have trouble paying the interest on their old loans; few will lend them money for economic development.
Population Prospects
There are some positive trends of late. Because of active social programs population growth rates are beginning to decline in many countries.
However, the population problem can never be "solved," we can only ameliorate the problem.
Population Prospects
It has been and will always be a continuing struggle for human societies to control their numbers.
And this means that there will always be great inequality in the world. There will always be great poverty, human suffering, famines, war, and political upheaval.
Population Prospects
We can certainly do better than we are now, but we can not look to solve the population problem.
Inequality and population growth are inextricably linked.